{"id":12801,"date":"2026-09-16T15:07:32","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T05:07:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.dalgarnoinstitute.org.au\/wp_site\/?p=12801"},"modified":"2026-09-16T15:11:47","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T05:11:47","slug":"the-war-on-drugs-cannot-be-surrendered-an-neither-can-prevention","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dalgarnoinstitute.org.au\/wp_site\/the-war-on-drugs-cannot-be-surrendered-an-neither-can-prevention\/","title":{"rendered":"The \u2018war on drugs\u2019 cannot be surrendered \u2014 an neither can prevention"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

\"\"The Australian Federal Police\u2019s (AFP) record makes one point difficult to dismiss: illicit drug markets are not victimless lifestyle choices. They are a major revenue stream for transnational organised crime, impose serious social, as well as public health and welfare costs, and require sustained policing alongside credible prevention, early intervention, treatment and recovery.<\/p>

This article draws on the Dalgarno Institute\u2019s critique of the narrowing of \u201charm minimisation\u201d into harm reduction alone. Its central argument is worth testing seriously: when public policy treats ongoing illicit drug use as inevitable, it risks communicating permission rather than prevention. But the strongest case is not for abandoning harm reduction; it is for restoring the full Australian policy framework\u2014demand reduction, supply reduction and harm reduction<\/strong>\u2014rather than allowing any one pillar to dominate.<\/p>

A war that cannot be abandoned<\/strong><\/p>

For years, Australians have heard (ad nauseum) that the \u201cwar on drugs\u201d has failed. The phrase carries force because it points to real limitations: prohibition has not eliminated demand, major seizures do not end supply, and punitive responses alone cannot resolve dependence, trauma, poverty, mental ill-health or social exclusion. However, that is not what this caricature on \u2018war\u2019 was meant to represent. Like all propagandised mantras the real intent is lost \u2013 it\u2019s a war not against people, but a product that weaponizes certain demographics who perpetuate a war against society as they twist their perfidious agenda into a War FOR Drugs.<\/p>

Yet the alternative proposition\u2014that Australia should simply stop fighting illicit drug markets\u2014is neither humane nor realistic.<\/p>

Ernest Hemingway once opined; \u201cOnce we have a war there is only one thing to do. I must be won. For defeat brings worst things than any that can ever happen in war.\u201d<\/p>

For those who care to look, we are now seeing in global spaces what a partial capitulation to the drug using world has created. The social, familial, community, health and productivity chaos is worse than any actions of this \u2018war\u2019 against psychotropic toxins.<\/p>

The AFP\u2019s work illustrates why. Its mandate is not merely to arrest individual users; it targets criminal enterprises that import drugs, launder proceeds, exploit vulnerable people and generate violence and corruption. In 2024\u201325, the AFP reported a transnational-crime return on investment of 78.9, calculated from an estimated $12.6 billion in social harm avoided relative to the cost of relevant investigations. The index includes consequences such as health care, rehabilitation, drug-related crime, road crashes, clean-up costs and lost productivity. These are estimates, not cash savings deposited in a government account\u2014but they make visible the scale of harm the AFP is attempting to prevent.<\/p>

The AFP\u2019s 2023\u201324 annual report recorded the seizure of 31.3 tonnes of illicit drugs and precursors, restraint of more than $175.8 million in criminal assets, and criminal charges against 318 people. In 2022\u201323, it reported 30 tonnes of drug and precursor seizures and estimated that completed investigations prevented $9.8 billion in drug-related harm.<\/p>

These figures do not prove that policing alone lowers national drug use. In fact, large seizures can indicate both effective enforcement and a large, persistent market. But they do rebut a dangerously casual narrative: that illicit-drug use is a private matter separated from organised crime. In Australia, demand finances enterprises that seek profit from addiction, unsafe supply, coercion, corruption and violence.<\/p>

The appropriate conclusion is not \u201cdeclare victory\u201d in a war that has not been won. It is: do not raise the white flag in a conflict in which the beneficiaries of surrender are criminal networks and the casualty is civil society itself.<\/p>

What the AFP evidence shows<\/strong><\/p>

The contemporary AFP model is broader than a simplistic \u201cwar\u201d metaphor suggests. It combines prevention, disruption, enforcement and international partnerships. Its 2024\u201325 performance statement describes disruption as lawful action that interferes with, delays or complicates criminal activity and reduces an enterprise\u2019s capability, influence and capacity to cause harm.<\/p>

AFP indicator<\/strong><\/p><\/td>

Reported result<\/strong><\/p><\/td>

What it means<\/strong><\/p><\/td><\/tr><\/thead>

Social-harm estimate from transnational-crime work, 2024\u201325<\/p><\/td>

$12.6 billion<\/p><\/td>

AFP estimate of harm avoided through drug and financial-crime investigations<\/p><\/td><\/tr>

Transnational return on investment, 2024\u201325<\/p><\/td>

78.9<\/p><\/td>

Estimated benefit divided by relevant investigation costs<\/p><\/td><\/tr>

Criminal assets restrained, 2024\u201325<\/p><\/td>

More than $143.6 million<\/p><\/td>

Targets the financial incentive sustaining serious crime<\/p><\/td><\/tr>

AFP briefs accepted for prosecution, 2024\u201325<\/p><\/td>

97% of 793 assessed briefs<\/p><\/td>

Indicates that most briefs assessed by the Commonwealth DPP were accepted for prosecution<\/p><\/td><\/tr>

Drug-related share of AFP briefs assessed, 2024\u201325<\/p><\/td>

33%<\/p><\/td>

Drug crime remained the largest identified category in this part of AFP prosecutorial work<\/p><\/td><\/tr>

Illicit drugs and precursors seized, 2023\u201324<\/p><\/td>

31.3 tonnes<\/p><\/td>

A measure of interdiction activity, not a complete measure of market size<\/p><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>

AFP figures should be used carefully. \u201cHarm avoided\u201d is a modelled measure based on the AFP\u2019s Drug Harm Index, not a directly observable count of harms prevented. Likewise, seizure totals are not reliable proof of prevalence rising or falling. They do, however, provide strong evidence that Australia faces a substantial organised criminal supply chain and that law enforcement has a legitimate role in disrupting it.<\/p>

This is also why demand reduction matters. Every user who never begins, delays initiation, receives effective treatment, sustains recovery, or decides not to purchase from an illicit market reduces the customer base on which criminal groups depend.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

Harm minimisation was meant to be balanced<\/strong><\/p>

Australia\u2019s current National Drug Strategy does not define harm minimisation as a synonym for \u201charm reduction.\u201d It explicitly rests on three pillars:<\/p>